Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Both Washington and Seoul stated that the closely watched deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system didn't come up during the visit of US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to South Korea over the weekend. "We are not at a point yet of determining where it might be suitably deployed in the future," said Carter. Such equivocal gestures indicate that discussions about THAAD system will continue.
In South Korea there are many voices saying that the defense system should be deployed in the interest of national security, while China has opposed the potential deployment on multiple occasions based on the security of both the Korean Peninsula and itself. If such debate continues, rifts may emerge in the growing political and security ties between China and South Korea. Both of them have to keep alert to the US attempt to drive a wedge between them with the THAAD system.
The US is not happy to see China and South Korea enjoying improved political and security relations in recent years, but it has no justified reason to voice opposition and even has to mouth some ostensible support. However, as Washington always seeks to deter North Korea with the US-South Korea alliance and counter China, better China-South Korea ties will undermine the cornerstone of the US rebalancing strategy and it has to take some countermeasures. The deployment of the THAAD system is a smart tactic that can kill more than two birds with just one stone if Seoul eventually agrees.
First of all, the deployment will significantly enhance the asymmetric US strategic advantage. The THAAD system seems to be designed to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile threat, but it will also somewhat weaken the strategic deterrence of China and Russia.
South Korea will be bound to its alliance with the US more tightly, which will add assurance to their political and security relationship but hinder ties between China and South Korea.
Moreover, THAAD deployment will likely prompt Pyongyang to react and intensify the uncertainties in the peninsula. This may be taken by Washington as a chance to demonstrate the importance of its military presence in the peninsula and therefore cement its regional and global strategic cornerstone.
Even if Seoul disagrees, Washington has at least driven a wedge between Seoul and Beijing. THAAD deployment touches upon South Korea's most sensitive point as Seoul attaches absolute importance to dealing with Pyongyang's threat. Therefore, it is highly skeptical of any opposition to THAAD deployment. The longer discussions about the deployment last between it and China, the deeper the rifts between their bilateral relations will run.
Washington released the deployment rumor long ago but still says it isn't ready to discuss it. It may intend to observe the reactions on the one hand and deliberately let the issue evolve on the other hand to drive China and South Korea apart as much as possible.
Therefore, both Beijing and Seoul need to stay wary and vigilant of US intentions since their hard-earned development of political and security relations is critical to the interests of both sides and regional stability.
The priority for China and South Korea now is to enhance policy exchanges and reach a strategic consensus, which requires both sides to adjust their positions and approach toward the middle point.
To this end, China needs to pay more attention to South Korea's security concerns and take more specific and powerful actions in promoting the denuclearization in the peninsula so as to alleviate Seoul's fundamental worries.
Meanwhile, South Korea should be aware that the fundamental ways to ease tensions in the peninsula are political and diplomatic means that advocate dialogue and cooperation rather than containment and confrontation. A weapon system may work locally, but will deepen the splits in the peninsula, making unification a more distant prospect.
Given the complex geopolitical arena, South Korea needs to be clear-headed more than headstrong while China should show more decisiveness and vision. If China and South Korea can reach strategic consensus, the crisis would convert into an opportunity for the two to enhance their political and security ties. Politicians from both sides should create the outcome with ample wisdom and will, not be misguided by a third party.
The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
