By Zhao Jianming Source:Global Times Published: 2014-11-24 20:08:01
The 4th Ministerial Conference of Istanbul Process on Afghanistan was held in late October in Beijing. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was in China for the attendance of the conference, met with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi, which triggered speculations on what it suggests for further cooperation between China and Iran on maintaining stability in Afghanistan.
Obviously, just like other members of the Istanbul Process, China shares common interests with Iran in this regard. Both countries are plagued by religious extremism and transnational terrorism. Terrorist groups, such as Al Qaeda, the Taliban and other radical forces, pose threats to Iran and China's Xinjiang.
Especially given the increasing conflicts of interests between China and countries along China's southeastern coast, including Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, it is of particular significance for China to maintain stability in its west. Hence, both countries want to prevent the spillover of terrorism from Afghanistan.
Besides, a stable and healthy functioning Afghan government is in the interests of China and Iran. Due to its important geopolitical location and long-existing poor and weak conditions, Afghanistan has long been coveted by external big powers. In such a case, enhancing the strength of Afghanistan is the best way to avoid foreign greed and interference.
Both China and Iran want Afghanistan to return to being an ordinary regional country instead of a US fulcrum. With its rich natural resources, Afghanistan is an important part of regional integrity. China and Iran hope that Afghanistan can develop close relationships with countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia, not just contact with the US.
China wants Afghanistan to play an important role in building the Silk Road economic belt and Iran hopes that the Afghan government can share the burden of several million Afghan refugees currently sheltered in Iran. Nonetheless, for now, deep cooperation is unlikely to be carried out between China and Iran on maintaining stability on Afghanistan.
The US ambiguous attitude on troop withdrawal will stand in the way of deep cooperation between China and Iran on Afghanistan. As long as the US troops stay there, in China and Iran's eyes, Afghanistan is an outpost for the US to encircle China and contain Iran. The two countries worry that the US troops will still linger even after the resolving of the Afghanistan problem.
The attitudes of China and Iran toward Afghanistan depend on the Afghan government's position toward the US. From a strategic point of view, coupled with the purpose of preventing Afghanistan from becoming another Iraq, the US doesn't want to disappear in Afghanistan.
Instead, it wants to stay by keeping military or training bases, so as to justify the huge cost of the counter-terrorism wars to US citizens. However, China and Iran don't want the US to stay. From Afghan government's perspective, it can gain benefit from the strategic conflict between China and Iran and the US. The Afghan government's attitude determines the degree of cooperation between China and Iran.
Both China's and Iran's foreign policies are quite practical. Hence it's too early for them to think about a post-US Afghanistan. Out of cautious consideration of the realistic interests, China and Iran will only take part in or support limited operations of the Afghan government on trade, humanitarianism, and peacemaking under multilateral frameworks such as the UN, the Istanbul Process and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Joint action carried out by China and Iran seems unrealistic.
Moreover, the US and Chinese attitudes on Iran's nuclear problem will determine Iran's position on Afghanistan. November 24 is the deadline for five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran, which is a much more urgent issue to Iran than the Afghan issue. Iran's attitude on Afghanistan and the Islamic State terrorist group will be closely related to the outcome of the talks on the deal.
The author is an associate professor of the Institute of International Relations at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. zhjm@sass.org.cn
