Global Times | Zhao Jianming
Published on November 22, 2012
According to a report by the New York Times in late October, Iran agreed to hold direct talks with the US on its nuclear issue after the US presidential election. This report was later denied, but has aroused high expectation.
Some hope that newly reelected US President Barack Obama can unfetter himself from internal politics and change his hard-line political stance toward
In 2008, when Obama took office, reconciliation was once a symbol of US policies toward Iran.
However, under great pressure from influential US Israeli lobby organizations and congress, Obama endorsed the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act in July 2010. After then, US policy toward Iran returned to the old track of containments and sanctions.
At the end of 2011, Obama once again imposed financial sanctions on
In addition, the US and Israel have held several military exercises which set Iran as the enemy. The US has deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf. Judging from such tendency, the Obama administration may take tougher measures against Iran in his second term.
As for Iran, since 2005 when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office, his administration has reversed Iran's passive position in its nuclear contest with the US and European countries. Iran has made significant steps in these years both in quality and quantity of its nuclear projects.
According to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has enriched its uranium to 27 percent in the Qom enrichment plant alone.
So far at least, there's no effective resolution by the US, European countries or Israel to stop Iran from developing nuclear programs. Enriching uranium is considered as an inalienable right in Iran. No matter which faction takes office next June, reformists or hard-liners, this political consensus will not change.
Iran expressed its interest in Obama's desire for reconciliation in 2008. It once hoped that Obama's new policy toward Iran might be different from that of former president George W. Bush, and that he might lead the two countries away from hostilities and confrontations.
But this positive attitude disappeared after Obama's strengthening of the sanctions and containment measures. Iran's position on nuclear weapons is unlikely to soften any time soon.
Currently, the US policy of promoting change through economic pressure may not work. Talks held in Baghdad, Istanbul and Moscow earlier this year proved fruitless.
Regional countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia have also put pressure to the US to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israel always threatens that it may use forces against Iran alone, which could spark a fundamental change in the situation. These countries may reinforce the hostilities and confrontation between the US and Iran.
Long-standing confrontation has created a vicious circle in which it's difficult for both the US and Iran to change their current assertive policies. Both sides believe that they are holding the trump card and want to maintain their current policies until the other compromises.
Even if the US and Iran hold high-level nuclear negotiations in Obama's second term, there is little probability of agreement or positive outcome.
