美国总统奥巴马将于11月13-15日访华，目前两国及国际社会许多国家都密切关注奥巴马上任以来的第一次中国之行，并对胡-奥峰会的成果持有较高的期望。因为，他们达成的任何协议都将给国际制度的改革、全球治理、重要的热点问题的解决前景带来程度不同的影响。
应该讲，今年以来中美关系的开局良好，双方关系已经被定位为积极、合作、全面的关系框架。随着中美力量关系的对比出现了局部性的质变后，双边的关系也已经从焦点是地缘政治制衡加全面的经济合作的阶段进入到了淡化地缘政治竞争与政治意识形态冲突，重点转向全球合作治理与散发性的微观经济摩擦阶段。尤其是随着台海两岸关系的持续改善和中美在金融与财政领域利益悠关度的深化，双方的关系在宏观上已经趋向于高度的稳定。“中美共治”这个概念虽然不为各大国和中美两国领导人所接受，但从权力和资源拥有范围看，它们结成特殊性的合作伙伴关系和进行全方位的实质性合作，必将给全球带来巨大的影响。
对于中美两国领导人来说，目前面临最紧迫的问题是，如何共同应对哥本哈根气候会议要求制定碳排放限额规定的压力。中美两国是最大的两个碳排放国家，排放量约占全球的40%。由于中国人均碳排放量要远远底于美国，大规模排放的历史也短于美国，所以，中国作为发展中的国家在现阶段不可能作出在未来的十年里减少排放的具体承诺。中国可以承诺的是，到2020年将可再生能源的比重增加到总能源的15%，同时大力建设风能和太阳能项目。但两国在减排的技术上可以进行合作，如碳捕获和封存技术、清洁煤和电动汽车方面可以展开联合研究，所以胡锦涛和奥巴马将签署协议促进两国的清洁能源合作。
两国元首需要讨论的第二个问题是汇率和贸易摩擦。奥巴马现正力推“可持续及均衡增长的框架”构想，认为最近几十年来，中美之间的经济关系已经变得“深刻地不平衡”了，中国对美贸易顺差越来越大，持有的美国国债也数额巨大。为使美国从只消费、只借款、不生产、不储蓄、大量进口的国家转化为拥有一定的制造业、充足的自有资本和贸易平衡的国家，奥巴马将会进一步要求中方调整收入分配结构，扩大内需和减少出口，同时，加快人民币升值。近期，美国对中国频频发起反倾销、反补贴的贸易保护主义的措施，就是这种经济战略的反映。奥巴马在纽约与胡锦涛会谈时曾承诺，轮胎特保案是一个特例，下不为例。显然美国不准备遵守这个承诺。
奥巴马将以给予中国“市场经济地位”为诱饵，让中国放弃鼓励出口的政策、按照国际市场商品的价值来对其出口的产品定价，并对美进一步开放金融服务业与娱乐产业的市场。中方充分理解美国调整其生产结构与生活方式，平衡其庞大的财政与国际收支的赤字及债务的良苦用心，但是，这种调整必须是在符合世界贸易组织的规则，不损害别国的利益为前提的情况下进行的。为此，中国领导人将会要求奥巴马控制贸易保护主义继续蔓延的态势。中国愿意采取措施转变经济增长方式，扩大进口，也会继续按照可控、渐进的方式让人民币汇率保持适度的浮动。但在以低廉和缺乏技术的劳力为主的国家里，产业的调整是艰难的和缓慢的，增长方式的转变需要很长时间，目前要减少美国贸易逆差的最好的方法是，扩大美国高科技产品对华的出口，让更多的中国公司去美国投资，这样，既吸收了美国的劳力，又可降低美国对华商品的进口。
双方领导人完全有可能按照第20届中美商贸联委会达成的协议，同意适时召开贸易救济工作组和市场经济地位工作组会议，讨论承认中国市场经济地位问题。美方将欢迎中国企业赴美投资，将确保中国企业得到公平对待；中国将扩大公民赴美旅游的实施范围。两国还会就贸易争端涉及的一系列问题进行综合对话，寻找解决问题的途径。
双方关心的第三个议题将是战略互信问题。美国常务副国务卿斯坦伯格9月24日在一次演讲中提出，中美两国相互应该提供“战略保证”（strategic reassurance）。这次演讲是奥巴马政府就职以来，高级官员首次就新政府对华政策框架做出的全面阐述，似乎美国政府有把“战略保证”取代布什时期的“负责任的利益攸关方”的打算。但是，“战略保证”的这种提法在视野上和可行性方面没有达到，更没有超越“负责任的利益攸关方”这个概念的战略层次。“战略保证”的意图是让中国向美国保证，其军事发展是与和平发展的目的相一致的，双方各要了解对方在安全上的关注点，找到合适的方式来处理双方的问题。显然，这是一种消极性的合作，而不是在全球性议题上的广泛合作，构建一个或9。11的国际秩序。
中国不可能单方面向美国作出战略保证，它一定要美国在对台军售、导弹防御体系、它同其东亚盟国的军事合作方面对中国作出保证。显而易见，奥巴马在与中国领导人会谈时，无法就这个政策框架作出有意义的宣讲。奥巴马能够强调的方面，主要是继续中美军事交流，提高双方军事上的透明度。中方将赞同这种合作，但是，同时也会告诫美国，对台军售和美台进一步提升军事合作是中美军事交流持续发展的最大的障碍。另外，美国国会2000财年《国防授权法》和《迪莱修正案》对两军在12个领域交流的限制，美方对中方的战略意图和中国军力发展的合理性提出质疑，美舰机频繁到中国专属经济区海域及其上空活动，都是破坏两军正常交往的重要因素。
目前来看，奥巴马总统冷战思维较少，他可能也愿意认真听取和认可胡锦涛的一些看法与建议。但是，他的安全班子成员，国家情报总局、军方对其在对华政策与战略上的任何柔和姿态都会进行制约。美国最近与缅甸的接近和宣示要成为未来东亚共同体的成员，均充分表明，这些智囊人士正在推动美国在东南亚扩大主导性影响，保持与中国的优势或平衡。所以，奥巴马在这次访问中，不可能在推动双方战略互信方面取得实质性的成果。
中国新闻网
英文版：
The attention of the world is focused on U.S. President Obama's upcoming visit to China. The international community has high expectations for the meeting between Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. Any agreements reached will have important consequences for global governance.
With the gradual change in the balance of power between China and U.S., their bilateral relationship is shifting from a narrow focus on economic cooperation to broader issues of global cooperation and governance. The improvement in relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan and the deepening of financial and fiscal interdependence between China and the U.S. have both enhanced the stability of the Sino-U.S. relationship. Closer partnership between the two nations will have a huge global impact, even if the concept of a G2 is not accepted by the leaders of the other great powers, or even by the U.S. and China.
Currently topping the agenda for both nations is how to deal with pressure for restrictions on emissions at the Copenhagen Climate Conference. China and the United States between them account for nearly 40 percent of global emissions. China argues that since its China's per capita emissions are still low and its history of large-scale emissions much shorter than that of the United States, it cannot make a concrete commitment to reduce emission in the coming ten years. But it may commit to increasing the proportion of renewables in its energy mix to 15 percent by 2020, and stepping up construction of wind and solar power projects. The two nations are likely to initiate technical cooperation on emissions cuts and President Hu Jintao and President Obama are likely to sign a deal on cooperation in clean energy.
The next issue on the agenda will be friction over trade and the yuan exchange rate. Obama wants to promote "a framework for sustainable and balanced growth", to correct the profound imbalances that have developed between the two nations in recent decades. China has a huge and growing trade surplus with the United States and is the world's largest holder of U.S. treasury bonds. Obama wants to move the U.S. away from consuming, importing and borrowing, achieve a certain level of manufacturing capacity, and reduce the trade deficit. To achieve these goals, he needs China to adjust its income distribution, expand domestic demand, reduce exports, and accelerate the appreciation of RMB. In line with Obama's strategy, the United States recently launched a number of anti-dumping suits against China. Although when Obama met President Hu Jintao in New York, he said measures taken against Chinese tires were exceptional and this has not been borne out by events.
President Obama will recognize China's market economy status if China gives up its export stimulus policy and prices its export products in line with the international market. President Obama will also ask China to open up its financial markets and entertainment industry to the United States. China fully understands that the United States is attempting to re-adjust its economy and life style to reduce its huge deficits but insists that adjustments should be made in accordance with the rules of the WTO and should not damage the interests of other countries. The Chinese leader will ask Obama to control the spread of trade protectionism. China will also take measures to modify its economic growth model and boost imports, as well as allowing the RMB to rise gradually in a controlled manner. But industrial restructuring will be tough and slow, because in the past China has mainly depended on cheap labor rather than technology. The best way to reduce the United States trade deficit would be to boost high-tech exports to China and allow more Chinese enterprises to invest in the United States. In this way the United States could create tens of thousands of jobs as well as reducing imports from China.
The third main agenda item will be strategic trust. James B Steinberg., the US Deputy Secretary of State, has raised the concept of "strategic reassurance" in relations between China and U.S. It seems that the Obama administration is looking to replace President Bush's policy of encouraging China to be a "responsible stakeholder". But the concept of "strategic reassurance" is no better than that of "responsible stakeholder". Its intent is to push China to pledge to the US that its military development is in accordance with its goal for a peaceful development. But the real challenge is that the two sides have to understand each others' security concerns and find proper ways to deal with bilateral problems.
China cannot offer the US unilateral reassurance. The US must make similar commitments on issues like weapons sales to Taiwan, missile defense and military cooperation with its East Asian allies. We can safely predict that Obama will bring no meaningful new strategic policies to the table at this summit. What Obama might stress is improved military ties and transparency between the two countries. China will agree to cooperate in this way, but at the same time, it will warn America that major obstacles to military cooperation will remain as long as America continues selling weapons to Taiwan. US doubts on the strategic intention and the rationale of China's military development and its frequent patrolling of Chinese waters are also factors obstructing military cooperation between the two countries.
Judging from his public remarks, President Obama does not have a Cold War mentality. So he may be willing to listen to and acknowledge issues raised by President Hu Jintao. But he is also heavily influenced by the National Security Agency and the armed forces. The US is currently enhancing its relations with Myanmar and proclaiming its intention to become a member of the East Asian Community. This demonstrates that Obama's basic approach is to enhance the dominant influence of America in Southeast Asia in order to balance China's increasing role in the region. With such an approach, Obama will have little success in boosting strategic trust between the two countries during his visit.
(Translated by Gong Jie, Wu Jin)
