By Li Kaisheng Source:Global Times Published: 2015-12-2 22:18:01
After the US sailed its guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen into the 12 nautical miles of China's Nansha Islands, Japan has said it is prepared to dispatch a warship to patrol the South China Sea. Still, the excuse employed is safeguarding the freedom of navigation in the waters, even though there has never been any problem with the freedom of navigation there.
Sending a warship to patrol the South China Sea is a desirable opportunity for Japan. First of all, against the backdrop that the US is anxious to wheedle its allies into containing China, Japan, by participating in the US-led joint patrols, will display its role as an important US' ally and win more leverage in dealing with the US politically and economically.
Besides, joint patrols could make the South China Sea disputes a long-lasting hotspot and problem for China. It will help distract China's strategic and tactical attention from the Diaoyu Islands dispute and alleviate the pressure on Japan. That's also the reason why Japan has been devoting itself to helping the Philippines and Vietnam with improving their maritime-monitoring, patrolling and military capacities.
Finally, the long-term significance is that the South China Sea patrols offer the best excuse for Japan, which is set on rebuilding itself into a military power, to expand its overseas military role.
Nonetheless, despite considerable benefits, Japan has to take into account the price it will pay if it really takes action. China will not do nothing in front of blatant provocations by Japan. It has the will and the power to strike back.
China has reiterated that the facilities constructed on the reefs of the Nansha Islands are mainly for civilian use, aiming at providing public goods. This is in fact a chance for regional cooperation and tension alleviation. Unfortunately relevant countries disregard the opportunity. If countries like the US and Japan cling to provoking China and go too far, the window of cooperation will be shut down. In order to safeguard its own security, China might have to launch a military buildup and announce an air defense identification zone within a certain area.
In front of a growing strategic siege by the US and Japan, China will have to intensify efforts in breaking through the first island chain blockade, so as to guarantee its freedom to navigate in the West Pacific including the Sea of Japan. It's also very likely that China will reinforce law enforcement and patrols in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands.
Recent months have seen a hard-won momentum for China-Japan rapprochement, but any reckless actions by Japan in the South China Sea will wreck the fragile reconciliation. East Asian countries have broad common interests in deepening regional cooperation. However, should Japan adopt severe defiant actions, China will have to react. As a result, the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit, which was just resumed last month, is likely to be interrupted again and Japan must bear the brunt of the costs.
Therefore, Tokyo needs to keep sober at this critical moment. It's understandable that Japan cannot accommodate China's rise at present. The rise and fall of powers is a result of the ebb and flow of comprehensive strength. They need to communicate and cooperate with each other, rather than throwing up roadblocks, putting the regional peace and stability in jeopardy.
Those countries that are pushing Japan to participate in joint patrols in the South China Sea should dwell on whether this tallies with their own and regional interests. Washington should prioritize control of conflicts when dealing with China. A showdown over the South China Sea disputes is in neither country's interests.
Given the fragile mutual trust, the status quo of non-conflicts is not won easily. The participation of Japan as a third party in the China-US rivalry will only make it harder to prevent conflicts.
Besides, Japan's intervention in the South China Sea disputes will add to uncertainty. It is countries within the region that will suffer most if the situation deteriorates due to Japan's meddling, rather than the US and Japan.
The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
