Hanoi finds canny balance between great powers and old foes
Global Times | 2013-8-5
By Hu Zhiyong
Former foes are now "comprehensive partners." After Nguyen Minh Triet, former president of Vietnam, paid the US a first state visit in 2007, the incumbent President Truong Tan Sang followed on July 24.
The visit only lasted for three days, but Sang brought back home the juicy fruit of a comprehensive partnership with the US.
The formation of a US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership, agreed amid the latest visit, ushers them into a new era since both countries realized rapprochement 18 years ago.
This comprehensive partnership was manufactured based on their mutual needs in a new geopolitical situation, and China's rise is one of the forces that draw them together.
Although China is the biggest economic partner of Vietnam, the two sides have territorial disputes in the South China Sea. An excessive dependence on China's economy is certainly worrying Vietnam, which also wants a stronger voice in territorial claims.
The US, whose trade volume with Vietnam reached $24.5 billion in 2012, in which Vietnam enjoys a surplus of $14.8 billion, has become its feasible option.
With the help of this new partnership, it is estimated that the trade volume between the US and Vietnam might be doubled by 2020.
Besides, Vietnam's entry into the WTO has produced massive dividends in export and foreign investment in the past six years.
However, such dividends, built on Vietnam's poor domestic infrastructure and low-level human resources, are becoming hard to maintain.
Vietnam is eager to join the US-dominated Trans-Pacific Partnership to give a second boost to its economy.
Responding to US' efforts to forge such a new trade system out of the framework of the WTO, Hanoi is staying in concert with Washington.
In additional to the economic profits, both countries have also started to work on security cooperation.
After August 2010 when Vietnam and the US convened their first vice-ministerial defense dialogue, they launched their first joint drill in the South China Sea. In 2011, both sides signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to promote their military cooperation.
During Sang's visit, leaders of both countries reiterated their promises of the MoU. None of them are particularly centered on China, but Vietnam's posture of opening its arms to invite Washington to get more involved in Asia-Pacific issues can be regarded as Hanoi working a lever to counter China in the South China Sea.
Washington is pivoting back to Asia, and Vietnam is a potential force to help rebalance this area.
Nonetheless, such a comprehensive partnership does not mean Vietnam is throwing itself on the US, nor will it be a chess piece manipulated by Washington.
Some hard problems, such as the ideological differences, the history of the Vietnam War and human rights issues are posing great challenges on their paths, and Vietnam has to factor the great cost of potentially enraging China again.
Vietnam and China are now in a comprehensive strategic partnership, which is more practical and constructive than Hanoi's partnership with the US.
It is believed that Vietnam will continue its prudent strategy of "balancing among powers." Taking a side is unlikely to be Vietnam's best choice.
Facing the warming of US-Vietnam ties, China needs to keep caution and pay attention to the cooperation level between the two sides.
