Economy & Politics
North Korean missiles set off a diplomatic row --- U.S., Japan assail tests, but China, Seoul remain calm
By Evan Ramstad in Hong Kong, Gordon Fairclough in Shanghai and Sebastian Moffett in Tokyo
1167 words
6 July 2006
The Wall Street Journal Europe
10
English
(Copyright (c) 2006, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
North Korea's test-firing of seven military rockets, including a malfunctioning intercontinental ballistic missile, has set up a diplomatic struggle that in coming weeks could test the balance of power in northeast Asia.
The first long-range missile Pyongyang has ever tested, which is believed capable of reaching Alaska and much of northern Europe, plunged into the waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan along with the others yesterday, causing no apparent damage, but drawing widespread condemnation.
The U.S. and Japan, which had issued sharp warnings to North Korea not to go ahead with missile tests after preparations for them were picked up by reconnaissance satellites in May, condemned the firings and called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Officials in Tokyo said they were considering ways to impose economic sanctions of their own.
In Washington, the White House called the firings a "provocative" act but said the emphasis was on finding a way to get North Korea back to the long-faltering six-party talks. "This is not a U.S.-North Korea issue, and we are not going to permit the leader of North Korea to transform it into that," said White House spokesman Tony Snow. The U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia and Japan began talks within the Security Council on a possible resolution to impose targeted sanctions on North Korea.
The reaction from China and South Korea, North Korea's main economic benefactors and critical players in the effort to curb Pyongyang's push to develop nuclear weapons, was far milder. Beijing, while expressing "serious concern," called on "all the relevant sides" to "remain calm and restrained." China's U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, said that if all members of the U.N. security council "feel that some appropriate action is needed by the council, then we will see," the Associated Press reported.
Seoul said that it would continue to engage in "patient dialogue' with the North and stick to its policy of reconciliation and economic cooperation with Pyongyang.
The lack of a unified response yesterday highlights the difficulty Washington faces in making good on its promise that North Korea would face serious consequences if it went ahead with a missile test. Both Beijing and Seoul fear a destabilizing collapse of the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Both countries have acted to shore up a North Korean economy brought to the brink of collapse by food shortages and the failure of communist central planning.
U.S. officials and analysts said the failure of the North Korean Taepodong-2 missile, which broke up 40 seconds into flight, suggests that Pyongyang is years away from having a reliable long-range missile that could get anywhere near the continental U.S. But the fact that North Korea went ahead with the missile tests despite many warnings, they said, also highlights how impervious the North Korean government remains to outside pressure.
In a sign of China's particular importance as North Korea's most important source of economic support, Christopher Hill, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, was set to fly to Beijing. He is expected to confer with Chinese leaders about how to respond during an expected multiday tour of Asian capitals.
"Who can put penalties on North Korea? It lives on resources from China and South Korea," said Yoon Deok Ryong, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy in Seoul and an expert on the North Korean economy.
Efforts to hammer out a coordinated response were to begin at the U.N. yesterday morning in New York. China, which as a permanent member of the Security Council has veto power, has long opposed imposing sanctions on North Korea.
The U.S., Japan, South Korea, China and Russia in 2003 began a formal negotiating process with North Korea to rein in its nuclear weapons and missiles ambitions. Last September, the countries produced a tentative agreement for North Korea to halt its nuclear-weapons development in return for security guarantees and economic incentives. North Korea soon backed away from that deal, however, and the six countries haven't met formally since last year.
In May, defense analysts in South Korea and the U.S. began to notice in satellite photographs what appeared to be preparations for a missile test by North Korea.
Leaders in Japan and the U.S. repeatedly protested the preparations and urged North Korea not to fire the missiles, fearing they might hit either country. But they possess little economic and political leverage over North Korea.
Neither the U.S. nor Japan has diplomatic relations with North Korea and the U.S. engages in virtually no trade with it. Japan's trade with North Korea amounted to $194 million last year, down from $475 million in 2001, according to a South Korean government agency that tracks the North Korean economy. Meanwhile, North Korea traded $1.58 billion in goods and services with China, its lead trading partner, in 2005 and $1.06 billion with South Korea.
Peter Beck, analyst at the International Crisis Group in Seoul, said China is the only country with "readily usable carrots and sticks." After Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and other leaders spoke out against a test, Mr. Beck added, "Their prestige is on the line. They've been embarrassed. If they can't manage their own backyard, power projection is out of the question."
Liu Ming, a Korea expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, says China is unlikely to issue a harsh public rebuke, and will instead seek to make its displeasure known through private channels. A senior Chinese leader is scheduled to visit North Korea next week, he noted. But Mr. Liu said the North's provocative behavior is unlikely to result in Chinese support for economic sanctions against the country.
South Korea declared the launches would "affect inter-Korean relations" but they didn't discuss specific countermeasures. In recent weeks, South Korean leaders have said they might cut off rice and fertilizer shipments to the North.
Japan took the most strident steps. Though it has no diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, it immediately barred all North Korean government officials from entering Japan, and slapped a six-month ban on a ferry that is a major conduit of trade between the two countries. Analysts believe North Korean ships making port calls in Japan supply the North with hard currency and parts for its weapons programs.
"We must take stern measures in response to North Korea's missile firing," said Shinzo Abe, Japan's chief cabinet secretary. He said economic sanctions were necessary to "express our view that the missile firing is a threat to the security of Japan and the region."
